Indians primed for turnaround

Monday, January 19, 2009 | Feedback | Print Entry

The Cleveland Indians opened the 2008 season with a payroll of just under $80 million, so while they aren't the Florida Marlins, they aren't in anywhere near the class of the Yankees or the Tigers or the Mets or the Red Sox. They're stuck right in the middle, and have to have middle-class sensibilities. They don't necessarily need or want the priciest baubles in the room, but they do have a little money to spend.
And this winter, they seemingly have spent well, targeting their needs, making a couple of trades that have been deemed by rivals as nice deals. "As much as I don't believe in feeling good about winter accomplishments," said Indians general manager Mark Shapiro, "I do feel good about it."

They didn't get the most expensive closer on the market, Francisco Rodriguez, but they got a good closer, on a relatively short-term deal. Kerry Wood struck out 84 and walked just 18 in 66.1 innings and converted 34 of 40 save chances last season, good enough to make the NL All-Star team. Yes, there is risk with Wood -- but it's a short-term risk, of two years, and potentially a high reward. He could be the best of the second-tier closers in the league.

If he has some hiccups, or he gets hurt, the Indians have a lot of depth again in their bullpen, a lot of options for Eric Wedge -- Rafael Perez, who whiffed 86 in 76.1 innings last year; Rafael Betancourt, from whom the Indians need a bounce-back season; Jensen Lewis, who filled in nicely as closer in the second half last season, going 13-for-13 in save chances after the All-Star break; Joe Smith, acquired as part of the three-team deal that ended with J.J. Putz going to the Mets.

The wild card of the bullpen bunch is Adam Miller, who has had trouble staying injury-free but has the talent to develop into one of the league's best set-up men if he can stay healthy. If you think this is far-fetched, well, remember that three years ago today, you probably had never heard of Joel Zumaya, and two years ago today, you'd probably never heard of Joba Chamberlain, and a year ago, you didn't know the name of Jose Arredondo. That's just how bullpens can be sometimes: You throw talent at a wall, and sometimes, you get great results, and the Indians are hopeful that could be the case with Adam Miller.

The Indians' lineup has more depth than it did a year ago, more length. So far, Travis Hafner is feeling good in his rehabilitation from shoulder surgery, informing the front office that the feels much better, like the difference between day and night. He has also hired a personal chef and worked on his nutrition. "Kind of a dual approach," said Shapiro. "He's lost some weight."

It has been awhile since Hafner has been a dominant offensive force: In 2006, he hit 42 homers, drew 100 walks and drove in 117 runs in 129 games. Since then, he's played 209 games and totaled 29 homers, 129 walks and 124 RBIs. It's possible, of course, that he might not rebound.

But the Indians are much more equipped to handle a falloff from slugger than they were a year ago. Their lineup, in the mind of a rival GM, starts with "one of the three best players in the game," in Grady Sizemore, and Victor Martinez is fully healthy again, as he prepares for a major shift in his time behind home plate. It's possible that Kelly Shoppach, who hit 21 homers with a solid .348 OBP last season in 352 at-bats, will catch as many as 70 games, with Martinez playing a whole lot of games at first base. The Indians finished seventh among 30 teams in runs scored last season, despite all that they did not have -- a productive and healthy Hafner, a healthy Martinez, and Mark DeRosa, who was acquired in a recent trade with the Cubs to play third base. And they might also get a boost from the primary piece they received in the CC Sabathia trade with Milwaukee, outfielder Matt LaPorta.

There is concern at the back end of the rotation, behind Cliff Lee and Fausto Carmona; they need Aaron Laffey or Jeremy Sowers to take a step forward, and could greatly benefit from a solid recovery from Carl Pavano.

But there is a margin for error in the AL Central that there is not in the AL East, because the Tigers really haven't made many changes, and neither have the White Sox or the Royals or the Twins. The Indians went into 2008 with great expectations that were quickly taken down by a poor start, but they have reason to feel good about their chances, again.