CLEVELAND, Ohio -- Talk about clueless ... not only does that apply to the Cleveland Indians, but to me as I look back and weep about some of the things I wrote this spring:
1. Start with the starters. Start with me knowing the Indians would not have a good starting rotation. Start with me simply ignoring that, and writing that they'd win 91 games and the Central Division, anyway. And start with writing that Carl Pavano could be another Jason Johnson, a real bust in the rotation -- and he has been the team's second-best starter behind Cliff Lee and leads the team with eight victories.
2. Not only did I insist the Indians would contend for a title, I wrote Detroit "had no chance" to win the Central Division. Well, at the All-Star break, the Tigers are in first place, the Indians in last. And I picked Arizona to win the NL West. The Diamondbacks stink, too. I also may have told someone that John McCain would win at least 40 states.
3. MVP for this season? Grady Sizemore, no doubt. Only Sizemore is batting .235 with 13 HR and 47 RBI and needs elbow surgery. And I predicted Brandon Webb would win the NL Cy Young Award. He got hurt, too.
4. I wrote the bullpen could be one of the strongest parts of the team, and not just because they signed closer Kerry Wood for $10 million annually. I was sure Jensen Lewis and Raffy Perez would be strong as set-up men. Well, maybe they are ... at Class AAA Columbus. They allowed 12 homers in 65 combined innings with the Tribe, their combined ERA a shocking 8.04.
5. That strong Tribe bullpen? Its 5.13 ERA is the worst in AL. But it's better than the starters, whose 5.56 ERA is also the pits of the league. And I sort of hinted the pitching would at least be OK. With a track record like that, anybody want some of my stock tips? I was real high on Fanny Mae and Freddie Mac about a year ago!
6. I was sure Ben Francisco would be an upgrade over Dave Dellucci and Jason Michaels in left field, that Francisco would hit around .280 with 20 HR. Well, he's at .242 with 6 HR, 25 RBI. Francisco batted only .236 after the 2008 All-Star break, so there were reasons for concern that I ignored.
7. I wrote something about Anthony Reyes giving the starting rotation the same grit as Kevin Millwood did back in 2005 when he had the best ERA in the American League. Well, Reyes had a bad elbow before he joined the Tribe, and it just got worse as he had major surgery -- after racking up a 6.57 ERA.
8. Twice in spring training, I wrote about how Fausto Carmona was looking good and throwing strikes -- He was, really! -- then came the regular season. I don't even want to talk about this stuff any more.
9. I really liked John Meloan, a pitcher the Indians acquired in the Casey Blake deal from the Dodgers last summer. I thought he could help in the bullpen. I mentioned this in print more than few times. Probably about the same time I could have told you that you really want to buy stock in AIG. Anyway, Meloan had a 5.69 ERA at Class AAA Columbus, and the Indians have traded him to Tampa Bay.
10. I'm going to stop here. I'm not going to mention how I pushed for Trevor Crowe (he batted .165) to be the fourth outfielder, or how I thought Jake Westbrook (he's still recovering) would be back from arm surgery and in the starting rotation by the middle of June. I'll just say that from now on, you can just call me Nostradamus.
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