Breaking down the big questions as the Cleveland Indians prepare for spring training: Analysis

Breaking down the big questions as the Cleveland Indians prepare for spring training: Analysis
By Paul Hoynes, The Plain Dealer
February 20, 2010, 8:08PM

CLEVELAND, Ohio -- Spring training is here. Where did the winter go?
There's still evidence of it on neighborhood streets and roofs, but in Goodyear, Ariz., a snowflake doesn't stand a chance. Maybe the winter has been hidden from view because of the frantic pace of the Indians' off-season maneuvering.
Excuse me, there was no maneuvering.
Seattle maneuvered. So did the Angels, Rangers, A's, Red Sox, Blue Jays and Orioles. The Twins were busy. The same with Detroit, the White Sox and Royals. The Pirates, Nationals, Reds, Astros, Giants and Diamondbacks had people coming and going at a rapid rate.
The Indians opted to strike it rich through a bevy of non-guaranteed, minor-league contracts. Maybe it will work in one or two instances, but it's not the recommended way to build a team.
Then again, the Indians say they're beyond the rebuild stage. The 162-game season, which begins April 5 in Chicago, will test a portion of that belief.
Right now new manager Manny Acta and his new coaching staff, starting Sunday, have six weeks -- 43 days, to be exact -- to discover the beginnings of what kind of team they have.
Every team, be they World Series champion or also-ran, enters a new season with unanswered questions or key issues to be resolved. Some of the answers will come in spring training. Others won't be determined until well into the season. Injuries, roster moves and a player's talent will take care of the rest.
Here are the key issues facing the Indians.

WHAT KIND OF MANAGER IS MANNY ACTA?

Best-case scenario: Acta is able to repeat the small miracle he worked with the Nationals in his rookie season of 2007 when he built a starting rotation from scratch. The Nationals, picked to lose 100 games, went 73-89 and finished fourth in the NL East.
The Indians have given Acta better arms to work than he had in 2007. He still needs to find the right mix.
Worst-case scenario: The Indians resemble the uninspired Nats that some scouts saw under Acta in 2008 and 2009.
What will probably happen: Acta, the first Tribe manager to actually manage somewhere else in the big leagues besides Cleveland since John McNamara in 1990, uses that experience to establish a pressure-free teaching environment where young players can take a deep breath and relax. How many games they win is another question all together.

WHO WILL BE IN THE STARTING ROTATION?

Best-case scenario: Jake Westbrook's right elbow stays sound and he assumes the No. 1 spot. Fausto Carmona gets his head out of the clouds, his feet back on the ground and has his first winning season since 2007. Justin Masterson proves he's more starter than reliever. David Huff makes it two years in a row with double-digit victories. Aaron Laffey throws more strikes and stays strong the whole season. Carlos Carrasco, Mitch Talbot, Jeremy Sowers and Hector Rondon provide a safety net.
Worst-case scenario: The direct opposite of the above.
What will probably happen: A couple of starters will do well. A couple won't. Consistency and innings pitched will be a problem. The pen, which pitched the third most innings last year in the AL, will once again be overworked.

WHAT SEVEN PITCHERS WILL BE IN THE BULLPEN?

Best-case scenario: Closer Kerry Wood and set-up men Chris Perez, Rafael Perez, Tony Sipp and Joe Smith win the first five jobs. Jensen Lewis, Jamey Wright, Jason Grilli, Mike Gosling, Saul Rivera, Jess Todd, Talbot and Sowers will be the main competitors for the last two spots. There will be more competition in the pen than anywhere else in camp, except for the race to the players' cafeteria for breakfast and lunch.
Worst-case scenario: GM Mark Shapiro gets a deal he can't refuse and trades Wood before opening day. The bullpen, without a pressure-tested closer, is in a state of flux all year.
What will probably happen: Wood will be traded by midseason so he doesn't finish 55 games on the Tribe's watch to vest his $11 million option for 2011. Chris Perez takes over as closer, but he needs time to make the transition. Rafael Perez and Smith have bounce-back seasons, while the revolving door on the pen spins for the second straight year.

WHO'S GOING TO CATCH?

Best-case scenario: Veteran backup Mike Redmond pairs with rookies Lou Marson or Wyatt Toregas to keep the position warm until Carlos Santana -- scheduled to play some Cactus League games after breaking the hamate bone in his right hand in winter ball -- arrives from Class AAA Columbus. This is the thinnest the Indians' catching position has been in years.
Worst-case scenario: Marson and Toregas can't handle the everyday job. Santana, meanwhile, stalls in his first year at Class AAA. That means Redmond, 38, has to catch more than anticipated, but as Acta said in January: "I don't worry about his age. He's fresh. When you back up Joe Mauer, you don't play that much."
What will probably happen: Whichever rookie wins the job out of spring training does a decent job with the staff, but doesn't hit much. Redmond gets a chance to earn some of his games-played performance bonuses. Santana makes his big-league debut, but his impact won't be felt until 2011.

WHO'S GOING TO PLAY LEFT FIELD?

Best-case scenario: Michael Brantley picks up where he left off in September with a great spring to win the job. He gives Acta a speed element to put at the bottom of the lineup and link with Grady Sizemore in the No.1 spot. Trevor Crowe will back up Brantley as the fourth outfielder.
Worst-case scenario: Brantley isn't quite ready and needs more time at Columbus. Left field rotates among Crowe, Austin Kearns and Matt LaPorta. Even Shelley Duncan and Jordan Brown get into the act.
What will probably happen: Brantley opens the season in left, struggles and gets optioned to Columbus. He returns and takes over the job.

CAN GRADY SIZEMORE AND MATT LAPORTA STAY HEALTHY?

Best-case scenario: Sizemore (left elbow, left groin) returns to his All-Star, Gold Glove form in center field. LaPorta (left big toe, left hip) establishes himself as an every-day first baseman with the ability to play left or right field.
Worst-case scenario: Sizemore and/or LaPorta break down in spring training and aren't ready for the regular season. Indians scramble to replace them.
What will probably happen: From all reports, Sizemore and LaPorta should have the green light in spring training. They'll be handled carefully, but should be ready to open the season. If not, the Indians' depth will be tested.

IS LUIS VALBUENA AN EVERYDAY SECOND BASEMAN?

Best-case scenario: Despite the Indians' efforts to sign veteran second baseman Orlando Hudson this winter, Valbuena shows he can hit left-handers (.205 last year), improves his on-base percentage (.298) and maintains his extra-base hit ability (38 extra-base hits out of 92 overall last year).
Worst-case scenario: The AL adjusts to Valbuena, but he doesn't adjust back. Hello sophomore jinx.
What will probably happen: Mark Grudzielanek, Brian Bixler, or one of the other utility infielders the Indians have signed will play second when Valbuena needs a break against a left-hander.

WHEN DO NICK HAGADONE AND JASON KNAPP GET TO THE BIG LEAGUES?

Best-case scenario: The left-handed Hagadone, 24, could be banging on the door of Progressive Field by the middle of the 2011 season if he gets through this season healthy and with no performance setbacks. Obtained in the Victor Martinez trade, he's 6-5, 230 and typically throws between 93-94 mph. He can touch 98 mph and is projected as a front-of-the-rotation starter or closer.
Knapp, 19, is coming off right shoulder surgery and it's going to take him longer. The top prospect in the Cliff Lee deal is 6-5, 215 and throws between 93-95 mph. The Indians think he can be a top starter or closer.
Hagadone and Knapp will probably start at Class A Kinston this year, but while Hagadone could progress quickly, Knapp will be on a slower track because of his age and injury. He's got a chance to be in Cleveland late in the 2012 season, but more likely sometime in 2013.
Worst-case scenario: Hagadone and Knapp turn into the second and third coming of Adam Miller.
What will probably happen: Perhaps one of the two gets to Cleveland and pitches well. If they both make it, and pitch to expectations, it will make the Martinez and Lee deals easier to live with.