For Indians, numbers are numbing

Slow start puts Tribe in a pretty deep hole

By Patrick McManamon
Beacon Journal sports columnist


Published on Friday, May 30, 2008

Baseball is a game about numbers, and the Indians' season now boils down to some numbers.

As in: The Indians must win 60 percent of their remaining games to finish the season with 90 wins.

If they wish to win 94 games, which might or might not be a reasonable number needed to win the American League Central, they will have to win 64 percent (nearly 2-of-3) the rest of the way.

The numbers make coming back to win the division a difficult proposition, and if it's a safe assumption that a wild-card team will not come from the Central, it's a clear view of the challenge the Indians face as they try to return to the playoffs.

That's the cold, hard reality
of their 24-29 start.

And with each loss, the future of C.C. Sabathia lurks in the background.

Ask yourself what you'd do if the Indians are out of the race at the trading deadline and a team wants to give them three good prospects — one who can hit and two who can pitch.

How do the Indians turn down that deal, especially since Sabathia turned down $18 million per year in the offseason?

Yes, a lot can happen in the next month or two.

A winning streak would change a lot, as would some good relief pitching. But the signs are not good for a team that came within one game of the World Series in 2007.

Start with Travis Hafner, who probably will be put on the disabled list today. Hafner has somehow forgotten to hit since he signed his contract extension a year ago. Last year, Hafner ''struggled'' and still hit 24 home runs and drove in 100 runs. This year, nothing is working.

The rest of the lineup has gone in the tank as well, forcing manager Eric Wedge to try more combinations than a school locker.



Few have worked. The past 30 days the Indians have hit .221, worst in all of baseball.

The cleanup hitter, Victor Martinez, has not hit a home run. That means the three and four spots in the lineup are void of meaningful production.

This has led to some ugly at-bats, but that's what happens when a team doesn't hit. Individuals start to press, which leads to them trying to do too much, which is what happened to Martinez on Wednesday when he popped to short with two on and two out in the ninth.

He swung at a bad pitch, a sign of pressing too much.

Then there's the bullpen, which has blown nine of its 18 save chances. Last year's standout, Rafael Betancourt, had Wedge apoplectic after he blew a lead Wednesday.

A year ago, the Indians prided themselves on having not one but several leaders, and on having a lineup that was slump-proof because it had hitters up and down the lineup who could hit 20 home runs and drive in 80 runs.

The aggregate became greater than the parts.

This year, that same group has proven the slump-proof theory wrong, and because there are so many similar personalities, there is nobody to take charge.

Wedge is trying, but leadership has to come from players as well.

Sabathia is a leader, but he started dismally and could leave after the season.

Consider that with Hafner out, the No. 3 hitter is Ben Francisco. He wasn't on the team until April 22.

Nothing like having the newest guy on the team in the third slot.

But that's what happens when much of the lineup is swinging a Wiffle-ball bat.

The lack of an offseason addition also is showing.

There were good reasons for not making a move — GM Mark Shapiro did not want to give up Asdrubal Cabrera in a trade for a hitter — but the fact remains it's the same team. Another bat might have mitigated the slump of the slump-proof gang.

It is only June, but the Indians will have to finish 66-43 to win 90 games. Which means winning 60.6 percent of their remaining games.

No team in baseball won 60 percent of its games last year. Or the year before.

To win 94 games, the Indians would have to win 70-of-109 (.642). One team in baseball has done that since 2004. One.

That's how tough the Indians' situation has become.

But . . . it's not impossible.

The Indians are 51/2 games behind the Chicago White Sox, and that's not insurmountable. They just have to get going.

The Indians found out last year how good they can be when things go well and everyone contributes. How do they fix things this year? Like they are eating an elephant: one bite at a time.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Patrick McManamon can be reached at pmcmanamon@thebeaconjournal.com. Read his blog at http://www.ohiomm.com/blogs/mcmanamon/.


Baseball is a game about numbers, and the Indians' season now boils down to some numbers.

As in: The Indians must win 60 percent of their remaining games to finish the season with 90 wins.

If they wish to win 94 games, which might or might not be a reasonable number needed to win the American League Central, they will have to win 64 percent (nearly 2-of-3) the rest of the way.

The numbers make coming back to win the division a difficult proposition, and if it's a safe assumption that a wild-card team will not come from the Central, it's a clear view of the challenge the Indians face as they try to return to the playoffs.

That's the cold, hard reality
of their 24-29 start.

And with each loss, the future of C.C. Sabathia lurks in the background.

Ask yourself what you'd do if the Indians are out of the race at the trading deadline and a team wants to give them three good prospects — one who can hit and two who can pitch.

How do the Indians turn down that deal, especially since Sabathia turned down $18 million per year in the offseason?

Yes, a lot can happen in the next month or two.

A winning streak would change a lot, as would some good relief pitching. But the signs are not good for a team that came within one game of the World Series in 2007.

Start with Travis Hafner, who probably will be put on the disabled list today. Hafner has somehow forgotten to hit since he signed his contract extension a year ago. Last year, Hafner ''struggled'' and still hit 24 home runs and drove in 100 runs. This year, nothing is working.

The rest of the lineup has gone in the tank as well, forcing manager Eric Wedge to try more combinations than a school locker.

Few have worked. The past 30 days the Indians have hit .221, worst in all of baseball.

The cleanup hitter, Victor Martinez, has not hit a home run. That means the three and four spots in the lineup are void of meaningful production.
This has led to some ugly at-bats, but that's what happens when a team doesn't hit. Individuals start to press, which leads to them trying to do too much, which is what happened to Martinez on Wednesday when he popped to short with two on and two out in the ninth.

He swung at a bad pitch, a sign of pressing too much.

Then there's the bullpen, which has blown nine of its 18 save chances. Last year's standout, Rafael Betancourt, had Wedge apoplectic after he blew a lead Wednesday.

A year ago, the Indians prided themselves on having not one but several leaders, and on having a lineup that was slump-proof because it had hitters up and down the lineup who could hit 20 home runs and drive in 80 runs.

The aggregate became greater than the parts.

This year, that same group has proven the slump-proof theory wrong, and because there are so many similar personalities, there is nobody to take charge.

Wedge is trying, but leadership has to come from players as well.

Sabathia is a leader, but he started dismally and could leave after the season.

Consider that with Hafner out, the No. 3 hitter is Ben Francisco. He wasn't on the team until April 22.

Nothing like having the newest guy on the team in the third slot.

But that's what happens when much of the lineup is swinging a Wiffle-ball bat.

The lack of an offseason addition also is showing.

There were good reasons for not making a move — GM Mark Shapiro did not want to give up Asdrubal Cabrera in a trade for a hitter — but the fact remains it's the same team. Another bat might have mitigated the slump of the slump-proof gang.

It is only June, but the Indians will have to finish 66-43 to win 90 games. Which means winning 60.6 percent of their remaining games.

No team in baseball won 60 percent of its games last year. Or the year before.

To win 94 games, the Indians would have to win 70-of-109 (.642). One team in baseball has done that since 2004. One.

That's how tough the Indians' situation has become.

But . . . it's not impossible.

The Indians are 51/2 games behind the Chicago White Sox, and that's not insurmountable. They just have to get going.

The Indians found out last year how good they can be when things go well and everyone contributes. How do they fix things this year? Like they are eating an elephant: one bite at a time.