What's the Rush

Patience, please: Tribe isn't out of race
Fans who want to blow up team should wait and see

By Sheldon Ocker
Beacon Journal sportswriter


Published on Sunday, Jun 08, 2008

DETROIT: What's the rush?

Why are so many fans and some members of the media pushing for the Indians to dismantle the team now and focus on 2009?

Trade C.C. Sabathia tomorrow is the loudest demand by folks who have decided that this season is a lost cause. But this move goes hand in hand with dumping David Dellucci and what's left of his $11.4 million contract, which runs through next year; checking out pitching prospects because Paul Byrd probably won't be asked to return and Jake Westbrook will be lost to injury, plus bringing up Josh Barfield, the entire lineup of Akron's Aeros and the Ohio State Marching Band, if one of the trombone players has the potential to be a closer.

Again, what's the rush?

Obviously, the Tribe hasn't come close to meeting the high expectations of General Manager Mark Shapiro, manager Eric Wedge and the Northeast Ohio sporting public. So what? No other team in the American League Central Division has either.

The Chicago White Sox have taken a tenuous lead, but their volatile manager, Ozzie Guillen, has accused his players, his hitting coach and even his general manager, Kenny Williams, of all sorts of dastardly deeds. Until two weeks ago, the Indians were barely hitting Jeremy Sowers' weight, but almost in lock step with them were the Sox.

That has been the emphasis of Guillen's rants to his players and anyone else who will listen. The saving grace in Chicago has been a small ballpark and the home run ball, plus an overachieving pitching staff that might not be able to keep up the pace for an entire season.

The Minnesota Twins are second in the standings, but they could as easily finish fourth as first. If the Tribe can turn it around, can't the Detroit Tigers, as well? Potentially, they still have the most fearsome lineup in the division, and before long, setup man Joel Zumaya will return from the disabled list throwing 100 mph.

This is not to suggest that the Indians are a lock to win the division championship. But this team is not out of the race, not even close. They have been the same few games out of first for weeks, owing to the inconsistency of the White Sox, and it might not even take a hot streak to pull even closer, unless you regard winning 10-of-16, say, as being a sizzling pace.

One cautionary note: The explosive series against the Texas Rangers is about as atypical as it gets. Yes, I believe the Tribe's extreme offensive problems are over. But who knows when Travis Hafner will return, and even if he does, whether he will emerge from his slump? Who knows when — make it if — Victor Martinez's strained hamstring will allow him to execute his normal swing from both sides of the plate and maybe even hit a home run?

Even with these uncertainties, the additions of Ben Francisco and Shin-Soo Choo give the offense a chance to generate enough runs to allow the pitching to make the difference. I think it's obvious by now that the rotation is among the best around, and effective starting pitching gives a team a chance to win almost all the time.

The key will be an attack that can consistently score four or five runs. Scoring 12 in one game and three in each of the next five won't cut it, but the offense seems to be settling into a pattern of reasonable stability.

That leaves the bullpen as the great unknown, just as team officials feared it would from the beginning.

Wedge needs Jensen Lewis to return from Triple-A Buffalo and pitch the way he did last year. It is unfair to think that Rafael Betancourt will duplicate his 2007 season, but he and Rafael Perez should pitch well enough. Masa Kobayashi has demonstrated that he will get big-league hitters out most of the time. Joe Borowski will blow a few saves, but most of the time, he'll get the job done, one way or another.

The Indians are not offering their fans a steady diet of Oreos and chocolate ice cream, but why not let the season play out? There's plenty of time to give up.

What's the rush?

It could be worse

Until recently, the Tribe's biggest problem was scoring, but that goes hand in hand with keeping the opposition from scoring. Every run the defense saves is a run the offense doesn't have to produce.

Granted, the attack has made strides the past two weeks. In the four-game set against the Rangers that ended Thursday, the Tribe scored 39 runs and amassed 57 hits. Of course, that is not the norm, and going into the weekend series at Detroit, the Indians had scored only 265 runs for the year.

Help has come from an unexpected source, one that really can't be game-planned: getting hit by pitches, an American League statistical category the Tribe leads by a wide margin.

The inability of batters to get out of the way has had a positive effect on the offense. Of the 36 players struck by errant pitches, 15 have scored and four others have moved runners into scoring position. Consequently, hitters putting their bodies on the line have accounted for 7 percent of the club's runs.

In one of the team's oddest rallies of the season, during an April 15 game against the Boston Red Sox, Hafner took his base after being plunked by a fastball. Eventually, the Tribe loaded the bases, and Ryan Garko was hit by a pitch to drive in Hafner.

This is not a team reputed to have an airtight defense. But the Indians rank among the top one-third of AL teams in fielding percentage, double-plays turned and (fewest) errors.

Maybe more important, individual defenders have saved lots of runs by making superlative plays. Whenever someone makes an extraordinary play, I mark it in my scorebook. Going back and determining whether the play saved a run or two can be subjective but not that subjective.

According to my calculations, defenders making very tough plays have taken away 24 runs from opposing teams, 9 percent of their total.

Of course, there are times when players go above and beyond the call of duty but don't actually save a run. So who has made the most exceptional plays? Not surprisingly, Asdrubal Cabrera leads with eight, Casey Blake has six, Grady Sizemore and Ryan Garko five each and Jhonny Peralta, Franklin Gutierrez and Jason Michaels — traded to the Pittsburgh Pirates — four apiece.

Cabrera took three hits away from the Toronto Blue Jays in the same game, saving three runs, which is one reason why the Indians scored a 12-0 shutout May 10.



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Sheldon Ocker can be reached at socker@thebeaconjournal.com.

DETROIT: What's the rush?

Why are so many fans and some members of the media pushing for the Indians to dismantle the team now and focus on 2009?

Trade C.C. Sabathia tomorrow is the loudest demand by folks who have decided that this season is a lost cause. But this move goes hand in hand with dumping David Dellucci and what's left of his $11.4 million contract, which runs through next year; checking out pitching prospects because Paul Byrd probably won't be asked to return and Jake Westbrook will be lost to injury, plus bringing up Josh Barfield, the entire lineup of Akron's Aeros and the Ohio State Marching Band, if one of the trombone players has the potential to be a closer.

Again, what's the rush?

Obviously, the Tribe hasn't come close to meeting the high expectations of General Manager Mark Shapiro, manager Eric Wedge and the Northeast Ohio sporting public. So what? No other team in the American League Central Division has either.

The Chicago White Sox have taken a tenuous lead, but their volatile manager, Ozzie Guillen, has accused his players, his hitting coach and even his general manager, Kenny Williams, of all sorts of dastardly deeds. Until two weeks ago, the Indians were barely hitting Jeremy Sowers' weight, but almost in lock step with them were the Sox.

That has been the emphasis of Guillen's rants to his players and anyone else who will listen. The saving grace in Chicago has been a small ballpark and the home run ball, plus an overachieving pitching staff that might not be able to keep up the pace for an entire season.

The Minnesota Twins are second in the standings, but they could as easily finish fourth as first. If the Tribe can turn it around, can't the Detroit Tigers, as well? Potentially, they still have the most fearsome lineup in the division, and before long, setup man Joel Zumaya will return from the disabled list throwing 100 mph.

This is not to suggest that the Indians are a lock to win the division championship. But this team is not out of the race, not even close. They have been the same few games out of first for weeks, owing to the inconsistency of the White Sox, and it might not even take a hot streak to pull even closer, unless you regard winning 10-of-16, say, as being a sizzling pace.

One cautionary note: The explosive series against the Texas Rangers is about as atypical as it gets. Yes, I believe the Tribe's extreme offensive problems are over. But who knows when Travis Hafner will return, and even if he does, whether he will emerge from his slump? Who knows when — make it if — Victor Martinez's strained hamstring will allow him to execute his normal swing from both sides of the plate and maybe even hit a home run?

Even with these uncertainties, the additions of Ben Francisco and Shin-Soo Choo give the offense a chance to generate enough runs to allow the pitching to make the difference. I think it's obvious by now that the rotation is among the best around, and effective starting pitching gives a team a chance to win almost all the time.

The key will be an attack that can consistently score four or five runs. Scoring 12 in one game and three in each of the next five won't cut it, but the offense seems to be settling into a pattern of reasonable stability.

That leaves the bullpen as the great unknown, just as team officials feared it would from the beginning.

Wedge needs Jensen Lewis to return from Triple-A Buffalo and pitch the way he did last year. It is unfair to think that Rafael Betancourt will duplicate his 2007 season, but he and Rafael Perez should pitch well enough. Masa Kobayashi has demonstrated that he will get big-league hitters out most of the time. Joe Borowski will blow a few saves, but most of the time, he'll get the job done, one way or another.

The Indians are not offering their fans a steady diet of Oreos and chocolate ice cream, but why not let the season play out? There's plenty of time to give up.

What's the rush?

It could be worse

Until recently, the Tribe's biggest problem was scoring, but that goes hand in hand with keeping the opposition from scoring. Every run the defense saves is a run the offense doesn't have to produce.

Granted, the attack has made strides the past two weeks. In the four-game set against the Rangers that ended Thursday, the Tribe scored 39 runs and amassed 57 hits. Of course, that is not the norm, and going into the weekend series at Detroit, the Indians had scored only 265 runs for the year.

Help has come from an unexpected source, one that really can't be game-planned: getting hit by pitches, an American League statistical category the Tribe leads by a wide margin.

The inability of batters to get out of the way has had a positive effect on the offense. Of the 36 players struck by errant pitches, 15 have scored and four others have moved runners into scoring position. Consequently, hitters putting their bodies on the line have accounted for 7 percent of the club's runs.

In one of the team's oddest rallies of the season, during an April 15 game against the Boston Red Sox, Hafner took his base after being plunked by a fastball. Eventually, the Tribe loaded the bases, and Ryan Garko was hit by a pitch to drive in Hafner.

This is not a team reputed to have an airtight defense. But the Indians rank among the top one-third of AL teams in fielding percentage, double-plays turned and (fewest) errors.

Maybe more important, individual defenders have saved lots of runs by making superlative plays. Whenever someone makes an extraordinary play, I mark it in my scorebook. Going back and determining whether the play saved a run or two can be subjective but not that subjective.

According to my calculations, defenders making very tough plays have taken away 24 runs from opposing teams, 9 percent of their total.

Of course, there are times when players go above and beyond the call of duty but don't actually save a run. So who has made the most exceptional plays? Not surprisingly, Asdrubal Cabrera leads with eight, Casey Blake has six, Grady Sizemore and Ryan Garko five each and Jhonny Peralta, Franklin Gutierrez and Jason Michaels — traded to the Pittsburgh Pirates — four apiece.

Cabrera took three hits away from the Toronto Blue Jays in the same game, saving three runs, which is one reason why the Indians scored a 12-0 shutout May 10.